Foreclosures offer a great opportunity for a bargain; we’ve been hearing this for a while now.  But, what hasn’t been told is just how big of a bargain that might be.  That’s why I went ahead and did some analysis on the sold foreclosure real estate data for Contra Costa County over the first seven months of 2008.  The results were separated into two groups: 1) comparing the final sold price to the original listing price and 2) comparing the final sold price to the final listing price after any price reductions.  As you will be able to see, the county averaged a 10% price reduction on the original list price and a 2% price reduction on the final list price:

What this doesn’t show, however, is the fact that many of these properties are starting with their original list price already below the current market rate.  In addition, we’re not seeing any of the negotiated lender incentives such as reduced closing costs or reduced interest rates.  Suffice it to say, though, there are huge opportunities for buyers to get a great deal today.

After reading articles from both the SF Chronicle and MSNBC this week, it’s no wonder that so many people I talk to about the real estate market are confused. With conflicting information coming from all angles, who and what should you believe? In this instance, the SF Chronicle article titled Foreclosures smack home prices - down 29.3% stated:

Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley, said he thinks the foreclosure flood makes the market appear much worse than it really is.

Whereas, the MSNBC article, Foreclosures likely skewing housing indicator stated:

Some real estate analysts say this may indicate that housing conditions are worse than they now look, dampening hopes that the troubled market could soon be bottoming out.

The thing to keep in mind, though, is that our local market here in Contra Costa County doesn’t always follow the national trends. Right now, correctly priced properties in good neighborhoods are selling fast - often times with multiple offers at or above the listing price regardless of whether they are a foreclosure or not.

It’s hard to have a conversation about real estate today and not mention the foreclosure situation, especially here in California and the Contra Costa County. But, what I’m finding is that a lot of people don’t fully understand the entire foreclosure process and how it is impacting different cities within the East Bay. Notice of Defaults, short sales, auctions, REOs - these are all terms that we hear used in the media, but what do they really mean? Well, I came across a great article on CNN Money this past week that helps explain the different stages to the foreclosure process and how you can purchase properties during each stage. If you have a couple minutes, I’d recommend that you read through it - How to buy a foreclosed home.

In addition, take a look at the following chart - it highlights the impact of foreclosures on some of the major cities in Contra Costa County.  As you will quickly see, not everybody is effected to the same degree!

When I help home buyers and investors evaluate property, I always talk about the interest rate that they are able to secure on their loan. I do this because, in some cases, the interest rate will be the deciding factor between making an offer and walking away. Les Christie, a writer for CNN Money, just recently posted an article titled Time to lock in your mortgage rate. It talks about the ability to lock in today’s rate for the next 30 to 60 days - which is a very compelling idea considering the current upward trend of interest rates. If you have a few minutes, I’d recommend you take a look at the article.

It seems like every other person I talk to lately asks questions about how close we are to the bottom of the real estate market … everybody wants to know whether they can expect another 6 months of price reductions or not. Well, depending on the person, I often prefer to show them how to better understand the factors that go into the answer so they can start to make their own conclusions. As a first step, you might want to read the Some Real Talk on Housing article on the Seeking Alpha website. They do a very nice job of highlighting the importance of housing vacancies on our market.
For those of you who are patient, stay tuned for future posts about how I try to evaluate the market.  For everybody else, please feel free to give me a call (925.817.8428) or send me an email (brian@sparrproperties.com).